Week 15 QB Meltdowns & Surprising Upshots: Who Overperforms and Who Falls Short (2026)

The state of Ohio's quarterbacks took a turn for the worse in Week 15, and it's time to dive into the reasons behind these disappointing performances. But first, let's acknowledge the exceptional play of some NFL quarterbacks who shone brightly.

The Rise of the Underdogs

Week 15 witnessed some remarkable comebacks and standout performances. Bo Nix, in a career-best game, led the Denver Broncos to victory over the Green Bay Packers, securing the AFC's first playoff ticket. Josh Allen, the Buffalo Bills' hero, rallied from a 21-point deficit against the New England Patriots, keeping their AFC East title hopes alive.

Trevor Lawrence, Caleb Williams, and Philip Rivers also had their moments, with Lawrence contributing five touchdowns and Williams pulling off some incredible plays to reclaim the NFC North lead.

However, this article focuses on the other side of the coin - the quarterbacks who fell short of expectations and the factors that led to their downfall.

To identify the best and worst performers, we compared each starting quarterback's Expected Points Added (EPA) in Week 15 to their 2025 season average. The players who significantly underperformed their own standards are the ones we'll be discussing.

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars:
- 2025 EPA/game: -2.4
- Week 15 EPA: 29.2
- Difference: A massive 31.6-point improvement

These quarterbacks exceeded expectations and played a pivotal role in their teams' success.

The Struggling Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs:
2025 EPA/game: 5.2
Week 15 EPA: -1.9
Difference: A disappointing 7.1-point decline

Mahomes' season ended tragically with a torn ACL, and his performance against the Los Angeles Chargers' top-five passing defense was forgettable. He struggled to find the end zone through the air and failed to convert crucial third downs. Mahomes' late-game magic, a hallmark of his career, was absent in Week 15.

Drake Maye, New England Patriots:
2025 EPA/game: 7.9
Week 15 EPA: 0.5
Difference: A concerning 7.4-point drop

Maye, an MVP candidate, had a stellar first half but faltered in the second. He completed just five of 12 attempts, and the Patriots' lone touchdown drive was largely due to a brilliant run by TreVeyon Henderson. Maye's inability to make adjustments against Buffalo's passing defense and his lack of deep passes in the second half contributed to the team's defeat.

Shedeur Sanders, Cleveland Browns:
2025 EPA/game: -7.4
Week 15 EPA: -21.6
Difference: A significant 14.2-point decline

Sanders, coming off his best game, struggled against the Chicago Bears' relentless pressure. He managed just 59 passing yards, three interceptions, and a low passer rating when the Bears didn't blitz. While he stood up well to blitzes, his performance against a more conservative defense was worrying.

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals:
2025 EPA/game: 1.2
Week 15 EPA: -17
Difference: A shocking 18.2-point drop

Burrow's return from injury couldn't save the Bengals' playoff hopes. He had a poor game, throwing a pick-six and completing passes to defenders as often as to his wideouts. This marked the first time Burrow was shut out as a pro and the first time he threw pick-sixes in consecutive games.

The silver lining? The Bengals' playoff odds were already slim, and Burrow's return didn't make a significant difference. However, his performance ensured the Ravens' happiness and solidified the Bengals' disappointing season.

These quarterbacks faced various challenges, from injuries to defensive pressure, and their struggles highlight the complexities of the NFL quarterback position.

What do you think? Are these performances a blip or a sign of deeper issues? Share your thoughts in the comments and let's discuss!