Welcome to the live ASX 200 coverage for Tuesday, February 10, 2026. We're bringing you the latest updates and insights on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) market, with a focus on the top gainers and losers, as well as key company announcements and market trends. Be sure to refresh the page for the most up-to-date information, and feel free to reach out with any questions or feedback (https://surveys.hotjar.com/58578fe2-a49e-4faf-9594-3a926a54cd03).
Web Travel Rebounds After Audit Shock Selloff
Web Travel Group (WEB) experienced a 29% drop in value on February 6th after announcing a Spanish tax audit, but has since recovered, gaining 22% in the last two sessions. Brokers suggest that the initial market reaction was overdone.
CLSA Upgrade and Target Adjustment
CLSA upgraded its recommendation for the company from Outperform to High Conviction Outperform, but lowered the target price from $6.70 to $6.55. They attribute the market's overreaction to the audit and expect any liabilities to be manageable. CLSA also highlights the mid-teens earnings growth expected into FY30, supported by the trading update.
JPMorgan's Overweight Recommendation
JPMorgan maintains its Overweight recommendation for the stock, with an unchanged target price of $6.00. They acknowledge the limited details and uncertainty surrounding the audit but emphasize that the reaffirmed FY26 guidance and ongoing TTV growth support the outlook. JPMorgan also notes that the valuation remains undemanding despite the sentiment drag.
Ord Minnett's Buy Recommendation
Ord Minnett keeps its Buy recommendation, although it lowered the target price from $7.00 to $6.16. They expect the audit to have a minimal impact on group earnings, highlight the resilient FY26 guidance, and believe that FY27 growth and market share momentum will support the medium-term thesis.
Valuation and Consensus Estimates
The stock's valuation screens as depressed against historical data, with a current NTM P/E of 11.1x compared to a five-year average of 49.0x, and an EV/EBITDA of 5.2x versus a five-year average of 14.0x. Consensus estimates have also been revised downward, with FY26 revenue estimated at $446.12m and EPS at $0.33, representing a 0.3% decrease from previous estimates.
Top ASX 200 Gainers and Losers
[10:12 am]
- Gainers: Treasury Wine (TWE) +6.19%, Ryman Healthcare (RYM) +6.22%, Deep Yellow (DYL) +5.67%, Silex Systems (SLX) +5.39%, PLS Group (PLS) +4.80%, Austal (ASB) +4.53%, Alcoa Corporation (AAI) +4.32%, Droneshield (DRO) +4.13%, Nexgen Energy (NXG) +3.60%, Capstone Copper Corp (CSC) +3.50%.
- Losers: AUB Group (-10.56%), Steadfast Group (-10.56%), Stanmore Resources (-3.38%), QBE Insurance Group (-2.75%), Summerset Group (-1.96%), Insurance Australia Group (-1.93%), Predictive Discovery (-1.82%), Mercury (-1.79%), Suncorp Group (-1.55%), JB Hi-Fi (-1.49%).
Australian Steel Outlook Improves
UBS reports that stronger US steel pricing and emerging domestic tailwinds support upgrades to Sims and Vulcan. US listed steel mills have seen a ~30% increase in the past three months, driven by consensus earnings upgrades from higher 2026 US steel prices and sector rotation from Tech.
Early Signs of Demand Recovery
There are early indications of demand recovery amid manufacturing onshoring, resilient autos demand, and stable non-residential construction spending. Sims' target price has been lifted 46% to $25.00, and Vulcan has been upgraded to Buy as the Australian housing recovery gains momentum, with 211k starts +8% YoY in CY26 and strong QLD exposure. The NZ economy is also showing signs of bottoming out.
Omega-led JV Secures New Taroom Trough Acreage
The Queensland Government has awarded 750 sqkm in Taroom Trough to an Omega-led joint venture, with Omega holding a 45% stake, Tri-Star 30%, and Beach 25%. This expansion supports accelerated exploration and domestic gas supply. Omega now has 5,041 sqkm, the largest acreage in the basin, when combined with existing PCAs (1,046 sq km) and 19.43% Elixir Energy interest. The gas from PLR2025-1-9 is designated for the domestic market, enhancing energy security and lowering gas prices. Preparatory work is underway to incorporate drilling on PLR2025-1-9 within the expanded 2026/27 drilling program, supported by Canyon wells, seismic data, and prior drilling at Tasmania-1.
G8 Education Flags $350m Goodwill Impairment
G8 Education (GEM) has announced a non-cash charge of ~$350m, reflecting challenging sector conditions. However, FY25 EBIT guidance remains unchanged at $91–98m. The impairment is attributed to lower projected occupancy, supply-demand dynamics, cost of living pressures, regulatory/compliance costs, and rising wages/operating costs. As a result, no final dividend will be paid for FY25, and the on-market share buyback is paused pending greater clarity on occupancy and sector conditions.
Macquarie 3Q26 Update
Macquarie Group (MQG) CEO Shemara Wikramanayake reports that trading conditions remain 'satisfactory', with broad-based net profit growth across divisions and robust balance sheet metrics. Macquarie Asset Management (MAM) net profit contribution has substantially increased, driven by divestment gains and performance fees. AUM stands at $736.1bn (+3% q/q), with Public Investments at $314.2bn (+5%) and Private Markets at $421.9bn (+1%). Banking & Financial Services (BFS) net profit contribution is slightly up, supported by loan portfolio and deposit growth. Commodities & Global Markets (CGM) net profit contribution has also substantially increased, supported by Asset Finance income. Macquarie Capital's net profit contribution has also substantially increased, driven by higher investment-related income from asset realisations and private credit portfolio.
Reckon Delivers Strong Growth Across Cloud and Legal Segments
Reckon (RKN) has reported FY25 revenue, EBITDA, and NPAT all up year-on-year, driven by Reckon One adoption, Legal Group subscriptions, and Cashflow Manager acquisition. Revenue increased by 15% to $62.4m, EBITDA by 29% to $26.1m, and NPAT by 94% to $7.0m. A fully franked dividend of 2.5 cents was paid in September 2025. The company expects Legal Group growth supported by Billing Workflows in US/UK, and the Business Group to accelerate the transition of legacy customers to Reckon One through 2026–27. Despite being caught up in the recent 'SaaSpocalypse', Reckon's result values the business at 8x FY25 earnings with a market cap of $56m.
PLS Secures Multi-year Spodumene Offtake with Canmax
PLS Group (PLS) has signed a multi-year offtake agreement with China's Canmax Technologies for 150kt per annum of spodumene concentrate, with an option to supply additional volumes and a 12-month extension. The floor price is set at US$1,000/t (SC6) with no upside limitation, preserving full exposure to market price gains. A US$100m unsecured, interest-free prepayment will be offset against concentrate sales, enhancing near-term liquidity. Supply is expected to commence in CY26, sourced from Pilgangoora Operation (Pilgan and/or Ngungaju Plant), with optionality to respond to market conditions. Spodumene prices closed at US$1,965/t on the Shanghai Metals Market on Monday, though PLS achieved average selling prices of US$1,161/t in the December quarter and US$742/t in the September quarter.
Region Group 1H26 Results
Region Group (RGN) has reported strong leasing, rent growth, and disciplined capital management, underpinning higher earnings with an upgraded FY26 guidance. Statutory NPAT is $180.0m, including fair value uplift in investment properties. FFO has increased by 3.9% from 31-Dec-24 to 7.9 cents. The distribution is 6.9 cents, representing a payout ratio of 87% of FFO. Assets under management have increased by 3.9% since Jun-25 to $5.4bn. Operational highlights include Comparable MAT growth of 3.1%, portfolio occupancy of 97.7%, specialty rent up 5% since Dec 2022, and 177 leasing deals completed with 79% tenant retention. The company has slightly upgraded its guidance, with FFO now expected at 16 cents vs. prior guidance of 15.9 cents (0.6% upgrade) and AFFO at 14.1 cents vs. prior guidance of 14 cents (0.7% upgrade).
Santana Minerals Expands Rise & Shine Exploration Target
Santana Minerals (SMI) has established a new exploration target at the Rise & Shine prospect, reflecting a new northward target that extends the potential mineralised envelop by ~1km. The new exploration target is 3.6–7.7Mt @ 1.9–2.8 g/t Au, equivalent to 0.52–1.48Moz. The current Rise & Shine Mineral Resource Estimate (Mar-25) is 26.5Mt @ 2.4 g/t Au for 2.08Moz (indicated and inferred). A follow-up drilling program is planned to test the new target area. Santana shares are up 9.4% year-to-date and up 9.8% in the past twelve months.
Amotiv 1H26 Delivers Solid Growth Despite Cost Pressures
Amotiv (AOV) has delivered a clean 1H26 result across all key metrics, despite challenging operating conditions for the automotive/aftermarket sector. Revenue increased by 3.3% to $520.5m vs $512.4m ests (2% beat),Underlying EBITA by 1.3% to $98.3m vs $95.7m ests (3% beat), andUnderlying NPATA by 2.2% to $59.7m vs $58.4m ests (2% beat). The interim dividend is up 8.1% to 20 cents vs. Morgans ests of 18.5 cents (8.1% beat). FY26 guidance has been reaffirmed: Underlying EBITA of $195m, citing 'revenue growth year-on-year' and incremental 10% in annualised gross benefits from Amotiv Unified initiative. At a glance, a very resilient result against a challenging backdrop for the automotive products sector. Amotiv noted a leverage ratio (net debt/EBITDA) of 1.95x, which remains within its targeted range (1.5-2.25x), with further deleveraging expected in the second half.
Sims Expands US Scrap Operations
Sims (SGM) is acquiring Tri Coastal Trading assets for US$66.5m (~A$94.9m), funded largely by the divestment of Houston land portfolio, including Mayo Shell, for at least $100m. TCT ships over 350,000 tonnes of processed obsolete scrap annually and operates under an 18-year service agreement with two five-year extensions. The acquisition reflects <4x EBITDA multiple and expected ROIC >20% post-synergies. Integration and synergies with Sims' Houston ferrous and non-ferrous businesses are expected to lift total EBITDA to over $25m at current commodity prices. UBS upgraded Sims to Buy from Neutral overnight, lifting their target price to $25.00 from $17.15.
OFX Explores Strategic Options Amid Renewed Interest
The AFR reports that Western Union is among a handful of parties to have expressed interest in OFX Group (OFX). Western Union is showing interest as OFX launches a Goldman Sachs-led strategic review, though no binding offers have been submitted. OFX shares are trading at 56 cents, down ~80% from peak levels above $3.40 in 2015, reflecting declining trading volumes and weak macro conditions. CFO Selena Verth resigned following a warning that H2 net operating income will be lower than the prior corresponding period. Western Union previously submitted a takeover offer for OFX between $3.50-3.70 per share back in 2015.
AI Momentum Accelerates as Funding Fears Ease
Strong user growth, fresh model launches, and deep capital markets access are reinforcing confidence in the AI buildout despite recent volatility. OpenAI has flagged accelerating traction, with ChatGPT growing over 10% month-on-month to around 800m weekly users, alongside plans to launch an updated chat model this week. Oracle rallied after a Buy upgrade, with analysts pointing to a reinvigorated OpenAI, $40bn of cash on hand, and a potential $100bn capital raise that reduces funding risk for Oracle’s data centre expansion. Alphabet moved to raise about $15bn via a high-grade bond deal, with the longest tranche priced at a 1.2 percentage point premium to Treasuries, following guidance for up to $185bn of AI-related capex this year. Debt markets remain highly receptive to AI infrastructure funding, highlighted by Oracle’s recent $25bn bond sale that drew peak demand of $129bn. Strategists remain constructive on the theme, with expectations that tech can resume its rally as AI enablers retain strong tailwinds and the AI adopter trade remains underappreciated.
Software De-rating Clashes with Earnings Strength
A sharp selloff has reset software valuations and positioning, even as earnings momentum and estimates continue to improve. AI competition fears and hyperscaler spending dominated sentiment, with Google and Amazon guiding to $380bn of capex in 2026, lifting total hyperscaler capex guidance to over $650bn, up 60% year-on-year. Q4 software EPS rose 24% year-on-year, the strongest growth in 2.5 years and 5% ahead of ests, highlighting a disconnect between fundamentals and recent share price moves. Forward earnings expectations are still edging higher, with 2026 software estimates up 1% and 2027 up 0.7% this reporting season. Average software valuations have compressed to ~4.4x EV sales, back to levels last seen during the 2014–2016 public cloud uncertainty period. Investor positioning has capitulated, with software now under 3% of total US net exposures vs. 7% at the start of 2026 and a historical peak near 18%. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF is up 6.7% in the last two sessions, but still down 18% in the past month and down 20% YTD.
Cyclical Rotation Gathers Momentum
Markets are increasingly pricing a stronger growth backdrop, with breadth and cyclicals driving recent outperformance. The Equal-weight S&P 500 hit a record high and outperformed the S&P 500 by ~220 bps last week, extending YTD outperformance to ~430 bp, signalling broadening participation beyond megacaps. Pro-cyclical sectors led, with Transports, Housing, Regional Banks, and Small Caps among the strongest performers, despite softer labour data being overshadowed by the strongest ISM manufacturing print since 2022. Median Russell 3000 earnings growth is running at ~11% year-on-year, the strongest in four years, alongside a sharp improvement in earnings revision breadth across both the S&P 500 and S&P 600. Global cyclical indicators continue to firm, with copper up 36% over six months, South Korea’s Kospi up 68%, and Financials outperforming across the US, Europe, China, and Japan over six and twelve months. On a rolling 12-month basis, the Russell 2000 has outperformed the Nasdaq 100 by ~3.5%, with historical rotation patterns suggesting scope for a further 10–20% relative upside, supported by improving margins without significant job cuts.
Good Morning!
ASX 200 futures are up 31 pts (+0.35%) as of 8:30 am AEDT. The overnight session in a nutshell:
- Major US benchmarks higher, with Big Tech, software, and resources as notable standouts.
- Commodities continue to trend higher, with gold back above US$5,000/oz, silver above US$80/oz, and copper crossing US$6/lb.
- Tech stocks led to the upside as AI narrative boosted by renewed ChatGPT user growth and rebound in software sentiment.
